The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mostly lower with modest declines of -0.08% to -0.26% for the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, and NZD. The greenback is unchanged vs the CHF and stronger by 0.52% vs the JPY after its -3.38% decline last week – the largest one-week decline since early November 2022.
Today is another “day after”. Last week we had the day after the FOMC meeting and press conference where Chair Powell was less hawkish. Today, we are having another “day after” this time the weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll. That report saw Non-farm payroll jobs came in at 175K vs 238K expected, with the unemployment rate moving up to 3.9% from 3.8% previously. The hourly earnings declined to 3.9% its lowest level since 2021.
So the two big events sent rates lower (10-year down 15.5 basis points), the USD lower (DXY down close to 1%), and stocks higher (S&P up +.55% after being down -1.70% at session lows on Wednesday).
PS it is also the “week after” another big earnings week which completed the earnings announcements for this cycle for nearly all the high flyers except Nvidia which does not report until May 22. Nevertheless this week, there are still some interesting names reporting including:
- Monday, May 6: Berkshire Hathaway (over the weekend), Palantir * Lucid *
- Tuesday, May 7: Walt Disney, Celsius, Crocs, Ferrari, BP, Rivian *,Upstart *, Wynn *, Lyft*, Twilio *, Toast *
- Wednesday, May 8: Uber, Shopify, Toyota, Arm Holding *, AirBNB *,Beyond Meat *
- Thursday, May 9: Roblox, Warner Bros. discovery, Marathon oil, Unity Software
Today (the day after) yields are down (10-year yield down -1.5 basis points), the USD is mostly lower and the S&P is up (17 points or 0.33%).
The economic calendar is void of any releases. Offer fats parking areas to speak at 4:50 PM ET, and NY Fed Pres. Williams is scheduled for 1 PM. Note that UK markets are closed today
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.90 at $79.02. At this time Friday, the price was at $79.19. For the week crude oil prices are down by 6.83%
- Gold is trading up $16.44 or 0.72% at $2318.48. At this time Friday, the price was higher at $2297.47. For the week gold prices are down – 1.54%
- Silver is trading up $0.54 or 2.07% at $27.10. At this time Friday, the price was at $26.46
- Bitcoin currently trades at $64,260. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $59,149.
In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher ahead of the key US jobs report
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 136 points. Friday, the index closed up 450.02 points or 1.18% at 38675.69. For the week, the index rose 1.14%
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 18.46 points. Friday, the index rose 63.61 points or 1.26% at 5127.80. For the week, the index rose 0.55%.
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 48.71 points. Friday, the index rose 315.37 points or 1.99% at 16156.33. For the week, the index rose 1.43% yesterday.
European markets are trading higher:
- German DAX, 1.05%. Last week, the index fell -0.88%.
- France CAC , 0.92%. Last week, the index fell -1.62%
- UK FTSE 100, on holiday.. Last week, the index is rose 3.09%
- Spain’s Ibex, 0.72%. Last week, the index fell -2.69%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, 1.15% (delayed 10 minutes).. Last week, the index fell -1.81%
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed
- Japan’s Nikkei 225, -0.10%
- China’s Shanghai Composite Index, +1.16%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, was 0.55%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, was 0.70%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower ahead of US jobs report:
- 2-year yield 4.799%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.866%
- 5-year yield 4.472%, -0.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.548%
- 10-year yield 4.489%, -4.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.556%
- 30-year yield 4.649%, -1.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.705%
Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):
- The 2-10 year spread is at -31.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.9 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -15.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -16.0 basis points
European benchmark 10-year yields are lower.