The Norges Bank hiked by 25 bps to 4.25%. The Norwegian Krone was unable to benefit notably from Norges Bank’s decision. Economists at Commerzbank analyze NOK outlook.
The end of the rate hike cycle could soon be reached
Norges Bank hiked by 25 bps to 4.25% yesterday, but at the same time signalled another 25 bps rise for December. In its projections for key rates, Norges Bank assumes that the rate is going to be at 4.5% over the course of next year. Rate cuts therefore do not seem to be an issue for now. However, that means it also signals that the end of the rate hike cycle could soon be reached.
It also became clear that Norges Bank is taking a much more decisive approach in its fight against inflation than some other central banks. Krone will benefit from that in the end, which is why we expect Krone to slowly appreciate against EUR over the course of this year and in 2024.