The NY session started the session with USD as a solid leader when ranked vs the major currencies. It was up 0.37% vs the GBP and as high as 0.80% vs the NZD. Those gains were eroded in the morning session and is ending the day with declines of -0.44% vs the GBP, -0.27% vs the EUR and although still higher on the day vs the NZD, it is only by 0.13% (vs 0.80% at the start).
Below is a ranking of the strongest to the weakest. The cumulative changes of the USD vs the majors is negative on the day and near the middle of the majors.
The USD buyers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
What turned the greenback around?
The Fed chatter from Barkin and Bowman were a little less hawkish vs Bullard and Mester yesterday.
Fed’s Barkin argued for 25 basis point hikes (not 50 like Mester and Bullard), saying that it offers the Fed flexibility to respond to data, and he is not taking signals from jobs or retail which he argued was due to seasonal adjustments.
For Bowman, she said:
- We’re seeing a lot of inconsistent data on economic conditions
She also threw in the towel a bit saying:
- Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens next in the economy.
What the we know from this week is that although CPI was around expectations, the PPI pipeline inflation was a disappointment to the upside. The Retail sales also showed that growth was strong, but we also learned that consumer debt hit a record $16.9 trillion last quarter with credit card debt growing at record rates (up 6.6% for the month and 15.2% YoY). Delinquencies are also on the rise. Is the consumer having trouble controlling their spending? Will it catch up to the buyers and finally lead to the slower growth?
As Steve Leesman said on CNBC today, if you aren’t confused about the data, you aren’t paying attention.
A look around the closing markets today are showing:
- Gold is up $5.86 or 0.32% at$1842.19. For the week Gold is down -1.22%
- Silver is up $0.15 or 0.69% at $21.72. For the week silver is down -1.15%
- crude oil is trading at $76.57 that’s down $-2.17. For the week crude oil is down -3.95%
- Bitcoin is trading at $24,610. For the week, the digital currency is up 12.95%
Looking at US debt market:
- 2year yield is trading at 4.623%, that’s down -2 basis points on the day, for the week, the two year yield rose 10.4 basis points
- 5 year yield is at 4.033%, down -4.3 basis points. For the week the yield is up 10.7 basis points
- 10 year yield is at 3.822%, down 4.2 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 8 basis points
- 30 year3.872% , down -4.6 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 5.1 basis points
In the US stock market this week, the Dow and S&P fell modestly while the NASDAQ rose:
- Dow Industrial Average fell -0.13%
- S&P index fell -0.28%
- NASDAQ index rose 0.59%
In the Forex market for the week, the USD was mostly higher. The US dollar was:
- Down -0.16% versus the EUR
- Up 2.07% versus the JPY
- Up 0.06% versus the GBP.
- Up 0.08% versus the CHF.
- Up 0.97% versus the CAD
- Up 0.54% versus the AUD
- Up 1.04% versus the NZD