The AUDUSD trended lower in trading today and is the weakest of the majors. However, it has found some support in a swing area floor that has formed going back to early January (see red numbered circles).
Looking at the hourly chart, that floor comes in between 0.68549 and 0.68706. The low price today reached 0.68644 and has seen a bounce up to 0.6895 currently.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the price has moved back above the 100 bar moving average at 0.68919 (blue line in the chart below). The prices also moved above the 50% of the last major trend leg to the downside (see yellow area) at 0.68907.
Both those breaches, takes some of the “trend” bias away from the market price action today.
Early in the Asian session, the price fell below both the 100 and 200 bar moving averages and that started the downside trend. The momentum lower continued – and intensified – after the price extended below both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages.
There was a correction higher in the early NY session that saw the price approach the falling 100 bar moving average, but sellers kept the lid on the pair and a new low was reached.
However since moving back above the 100 bar moving average and above the 38.2%-50% of the last trend leg down, some of the “trend” dominance has been taken out of the market. Putting it another way, there is some fight back from the buyers.
If the price can stay above the 100 bar moving average/50% retracement, that would be the best case for the dip buyers looking for a corrective move. Move back below that area would muddy the waters a bit for both buyers and sellers.
On the top side, the falling 200 bar moving average would be the next upside target.