Today, the USDJPY traded higher into the European session and in doing so, moved above the 200 hour MA (green line). The one break above that MA line last week failed quickly. Yesterday, the price moved up to test the MA again and backed off.
So the break above today was significant. However, momentum cannot be sustained and early NY session the price fell back below the moving average line. The price of the USDJPY has been edging down since that failure.
The low for the day reached 136.21 (so far).The current price is at 136.31. The price decline also fell back below the 50% midpoint of the move down from last week’s high (at 136.75). That level will now be a close resistance level for sellers with four more downside momentum.
What now?
On the downside, the pair sits comfortably between the 38.2% retracement at 136.009 and the 100 hour moving average near 135.93 (and moving higher). It would take a move below each of those levels to increase the bearish bias. On a break below, traders would look toward the 200 day moving average at 134.828 as the next key downside target.
On the top side, the 200 hour moving average above at 137.085 is the key target above that would once again need to be broken to increase a bullish bias (the 50% is an interim upside target at 136.750). Move above and traders will refocus on the 61.8% retracement and swing low from November 28 at 137.491, and the area near 137.65 to the high today at 137.85.
Overall, staying above the 100 hour MA on the downside, and below the 200 hour MA above, leaves the technicals in neutral territory, with buyers and sellers left to battle it out until the price can break one of the extremes with momentum.