The price of WTI crude oil moved down to a new session low of $76.79. The high price was up nearly 6 dollars from the low at $82.70. The fall comes despite more relaxed covid policies in China, and the full European embargo of Russian oil and the price cap at $60 all went into effect today.
Working in favor of the downside is a higher dollar which has a negative impact on the price of commodities including oil. There may have also been a surge in Russian oil into the market ahead of embargo.
Technically speaking, the high price today stalled near the high of a swing area defined by swing highs on the hourly chart going back to November 17, November 18 and November 22 (see yellow area and red number circles). That swing area comes between $82.35 and $82.66. Last week on Thursday the price moved above those levels but fell short of the 50% midpoint target of the move down from the November 7 high. The high price reached $83.32. The 50% midpoint came in at $83.66.
IN trading today, the price tumbled below the 100 hour moving average of $80.47 (blue line) , and then paused near the 200 hour moving average at $78.97 (green line) before resuming the decline over the last few hours.
The next target comes between $76.23 and $76.81. The low price at $76.79 reach the upper end of that swing area but found willing buyers on the first test..
On November 21, a cycle low was reached at $75.35. Then last Monday, the low price for 2022 reached $73.59. Those levels would be targets on further downside selling.
Close risk for sellers would now be the 200 hour moving average at $78.97. Stay below keeps sellers in firm control. Move above, and that should trigger some additional buying after the sharp fall. From the high today, to the low, the price fell -6.9%.