Tur production would drop in Karnataka by 10% to 0.84 MMT, in Maharashtra by 23% to 0.90 MMT and in Telangana by 42% to 0.15 MMT while production in Madhya Pradesh would remain higher by 73% to 0.46 MMT. Production fell due to a decline in area by about 5% as farmers switched to other remunerative crops like soybean and cotton.
Urad production for the crop year 2022-23 would remain lower by 12% year-on-year to 1.53 MMT against 1.74 MMT in the previous year. Urad production would drop in Maharashtra by 32% to 0.19 MMT, Uttar Pradesh by 9% to 0.35 MMT, and Rajasthan by 8% to 0.14 MMT while production increased in Madhya Pradesh by 5% to 0.48 MMT.
Production declined due to a decline in acreages by 6% as farmers preferred to switch to soybean and cotton crop while yield dropped by 2% due to heavy rainfall in late September/ October just before the crop harvest which resulted in lower yields.
Among the key Kharif pulses crop, Moong is the only crop in which production is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1.53 MMT against 1.48 MMT in the previous year. Rajasthan is the key producer of Moong crop in the Kharif season, production would increase by 10% to 1 MMT due to a boost in the yields.
However, production would drop in other key producing states like Maharashtra by 25% to 0.14 MMT, and Karnataka by 14% to 0.14 MMT.
In order to keep the pulses availability at comfortable levels and to keep a check on the prices in the domestic market, the central government has extended the free import policy of Urad and Tur up to 31st Mar-23. Also, extended the 0% AIDC deadline on lentil imports from September 30, 2022, to March 31, 2023.
Tur imports during April 2022 to November 2022 were 21% lower year-on-year at 3,73,582 MT against 4,74,332 MT at the same period last year.
Urad imports during April 2022 to November 2022 were 39% lower year-on-year at 2,45,730 MT against 4,01,848 MT at the same period last year. Imports would gradually rise in the coming months as the local crop supply is lower.
Tur prices fell by about 7% month-on-month to trade near Rs 7,325 per quintal. The reason for price drop is continuous imports of Tur from Africa amid domestic crop harvest and the government intervention to mandatorily disclose tur stocks on their portal kept the domestic prices under pressure.
We expect Tur prices to trade bearish and may touch Rs 6,800-7,000 levels in the short term. Urad prices also fell by 6.7% month-on-month to trade near Rs 7,000 per quintal.
Prices declined due to the regular imports of urad from Myanmar. The spillover effect of other pulses also kept the urad prices under pressure. Urad prices to trade bearish and may touch Rs 6,750-6,850 levels in the short term.
The author is
Senior Vice-President, Origo Commodities