- The GBP/USD is almost flat ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
- The US ADP report was better than expected, and salaries edged higher, will the Fed pivot?
- The British Pound was cushioned by the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision looming.
The GBP/USD is subdued amidst a choppy trading session as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s decision, with most analysts estimating a 75 bps rate hike by the central bank. Still, most economists are looking forward to some clarity from the Fed regarding rates forward path. Hence, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.1479, fluctuating between gains and losses.
GBP/USD seesaws around 1.1470s ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision
Wall Street reflects investors’ uncertainty, with indices trading in the red. US jobs data, mainly from the private sector, reported that hiring increased by 239K in October, exceeding the September upward revision to 192K and smashing estimates. According to the report, people that switched jobs experienced a 15.2% rise in salaries, which would keep inflationary pressures to the upside, as wage growth is one of the Fed’s main concerns, as consumers’ purchasing power would likely keep prices higher.
In the meantime, Tuesday’s S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMIs remain at expansionary territory, core inflation readings edging higher, and the ADP report might keep the Federal Reserve under pressure. Even though the article written in the WSJ journal on October 21 laid the ground for a slower pace of rate hikes, data dependence might be the best road to go. Nevertheless, investors should brace for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, which would be scrutinized in search for a possible Fed pivot.
Aside from this, the Pound Sterling remained cushioned by Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. Money market futures estimates that the “Old Lady” will raise rates 75 bps to 3%. Of note, the BoE will update their forecasts at this week’s meeting amidst some fiscal uncertainty, as the new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, alongside its Chancellor Hunt, delayed the fiscal package until the end of November.
Therefore, the GBP/USD might keep range-bound as investors prepare for Jerome Powell’s remarks. If the Fed disregards forward guidance and sets the tone to the “meeting by meeting” path as the ECB, the US Dollar could appreciate, as some data Is yet to confirm the US economy is weakening. So the GBP/USD might test the 1.1400 figure in that scenario; otherwise, a re-test of the last week’s high at 1.1645 ahead of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is on the cards.