Like other currencies, the CAD has moved lower (the USDCAD higher) after the better data today helped to reverse the USD declines seen earlier in the day. The price of the USDCAD has now moved above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.36326 and into a swing area between 1.3632 to 1.36663. The high price reached 1.36581. The current price is just below the swing area and the 200 bar MA at 1.3635.
What the move higher also did, was to push the price more toward the middle the meat of the range trading seen since mid-September. That range has found support near the 38.2% of the move up from the August low at 1.3499 (call it 1.3500) and 1.3854. Overall, the price has been in an up and down non-trending range since mid- September. It will take a move above 1.38546 or below 1.3500 to break the pair out.
Admittedly, the upside was already broken on the break on October 13 and October 14, but each of those breaks failed. The buyers had their shot.
That will put the pressure on the buyers to take back levels like the 1.3666 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3703 (call it 1.3700). If they can’t, the tilt over the ups and down period, is more in favor of the downside.
Watch 1.3666 in the short term.