- Prior was 108.0 (revised to 107.8)
- Present situation 138.9 vs 149.6 prior
- Expectations 78.1 vs 80.3 prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 12.7% vs 11.4% prior
This index had fallen to 95 in July so it’s not any kind of shocking decline and these numbers track gasoline prices closely.
“Consumer confidence retreated in October, after advancing in August and September,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, suggesting economic growth slowed to start Q4. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80—a level associated with recession—suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.”
“Notably, concerns about inflation —which had been receding since July—picked up again, with both gas and food prices serving as main drivers. Vacation intentions cooled; however, intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all rose. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting which would reduce retailers’ profit margins.”