Oil is $1 off the lows but still down $2.92 to $85.56 today.
The oil bulls haven’t got any help from the Atlantic storm season and we’re at the peak of the season now. We’ve been watching formation in the mid-Atlantic and it spun up today into Tropical storm Fiona but the latest forecast track from the NHC suggests it will turn north after traveling over or near Hispaniola.
Here’s the forecast discussion from the NHC:
Strong low- to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic is steering Fiona due west, or 270 degrees at 12 kt, and this general motion, with some gradual decrease in forward speed, is likely to
continue for the next couple of days. There is notable model divergence after 36 hours, with the stronger GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions turning a slower Fiona northwestward over the northern
Leeward and Virgin Islands. On the other hand, the ECWMF, UKMET, and all of the consensus aids maintain a faster westward to west-northwestward motion across the far northeastern Caribbean Sea
through day 3. Given the expectation that moderate shear is likely to continue, the NHC track forecast favors the less-intense scenarios and shows a solution moving just south of the Virgin
Islands and then near Puerto Rico in a few days. After day 3, a weakness near the western extent of the ridge should allow Fiona to gain some latitude and possibly turn toward the northwest,
moving across the Greater Antilles into the far southwestern Atlantic. On the whole, the NHC track forecast remains steady from previous predictions, largely following a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there’s nothing of note.