UK July monthly GDP +0.2% vs +0.4% m/m expected

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  • Prior -0.6%
  • GDP 0.0% vs +0.1% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior -0.1%

Looking at the details, services was the main contributor to the rise in GDP as it grew by 0.4% in July – after a fall of 0.5% in June. Information and communication grew by 1.5% and was the largest contributor to the services growth in July. Meanwhile, production fell by 0.3% on the month mainly because of a fall of 3.4% in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply.

Overall, monthly GDP is now estimated to be 1.1% above its pre-pandemic levels i.e. February 2020:

The miss on estimates will not provide too much comfort for the UK economic outlook, which looks set to worsen significantly heading into the year-end amid soaring inflation pressures and the cost-of-living crisis.

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