The NZDUSD held resistance last week against the 200 hour MA. On Thursday, the run higher stalled ahead of the level. On Friday, the price moved right up to the level and backed off (after the core PCE data).
On Friday, the selling was strong with the pair closing at the session lows.
Today, the price moved to a new low in the Asian session at 0.61007 (call it 0.6100). That was not the low for the year (the low reached 0.60599 on July 14 (see daily chart below).
The subsequent move higher has seen the price move back higher to test a swing area between 0.6155 to 0.6165. The high price reached 0.61665 and 0.61657 respectively on two seperate hourly bars. Getting above that area is needed to increase the bullish bias – with more work to do to give the buyers more confidence.
The “work to do” is to get above the falling 100 hour MA at 0.6183. Just ahead of that is the 50% mipoing of the move down from the high last week at 0.61753. The 200 hour MA is at 0.6202 now. WIth 2 successful tests of that MA line last week, the levels importance has increased and ultimately, if the price is to show more upside, getting and staying above the 200 hour MA is required.
Absent moves above those levels and the sellers are more in control.