I can’t remember many things that have ever fallen for 12 straight days but here we are. Bitcoin is down another $2420 today, breaking the $20,000 level and continuing lower to $18,171, which is scarcely above the session lows.
This is the lowest since mid-December 2020 and there isn’t much in the way of support on the weekly chart.
While bitcoin’s 12% decline today is bad, the 14.5% drop in ethereum is even worse. It’s broken $1000 for the first time since January 2021 and has continued to $932.
Last week we highlighted the importance of $1700 as support and — wow — did it ever implode after the break. It’s down 45% in less that two weeks.
The catalyst for the latest leg down was the implosion of luna, followed by the problems at Celsius and then the evident downfall of the crypto hedge fund 3AC.
Nothing goes straight down forever and bear-market bounces can be incredible. As bad as these charts look, there will be bounces but right now it’s a negative feedback loop to the downside.
Even more worrisome are the persistent questions about the usefulness of Web 3.0. The idea of a decentralized and permissionless internet is intoxicating but a decade later, we’re still struggling develop for legal use cases. At the same time, the cheap money has dried up so it will be increasingly difficult to build something novel. Hopefully the seeds have been planted for something besides speculation and money laundering.
This thread from the founders of AirBnB and Box made a good point about product-market fit in a January thread.
Levie added to this today, saying:
“And this was the diplomatic version 🙃. I don’t believe it’s a good idea for the tech industry to be running around saying we’ve figured out a revolutionary new internet (which is patently untrue) while taking in consumer investment in a flawed system before PMF.”
That’s a stinging critique but it’s also a sign of the phase that we’re in right now. People are gnawing at the core of the idea.