The AUDUSD tumbled lower today and in the process has moved down toward a key swing area between 0.6809 and 0.6832 (see red numbered circles on the daily chart above). The low for the day reached 0.6824 before bouncing. Risk focused traders have put a toe in the water. The price is currently at 0.6847 modestly off the high of that swing area.
Going forward, it would take a move below the swing area to give sellers more control (and likely see stop selling).
What would hurt the sellers now?
Staying on the daily chart, the AUDUSD fell below the December 2021 and the January 2022 lows on Monday, but did bounce above those levels on Tuesday and yesterday (helped by the volatility from the CPI data).
However, the high yesterday did find sellers near the broken 38.2% at 0.70537 and resumed the downside momentum. The price of the AUDUSD closed below the aforementioned lows both on Tuesday and Wednesday giving the sellers some downside control.
Today, the high price stalled ahead of the lowest low from January at 0.6966 (the high reached 0.69526 today).
If the price can stay below the 0.6966 level, the sellers remain in play and with the stronger hand. A move back above – and then above the December low at 0.6990 – would spoil the bearish party and give the sellers on the break lower, some cause for pause..