The price of the USDJPY has been down for 3 consecutive days, but the month of March saw the USDJPY have the largest range for a calendar month since March 2020 – the start of the pandemic lockdown in the US.
In March 2020, the low to high trading range was 1053 pips. This month the range was 1045 pips – just 8 pips from March 2020. The range this month and in March 2020 were the largest one month trading ranges since November 2016.
Looking at the weekly chart, the low for the month (in the first week) based within a swing area between 114.20 to 114.728. The low for the month was at 114.64. The basing at that swing area helped contribute to the upside momentum. A strong launch pad can lead to a powerful first step
ON the way higher, the price ripped through 118.658 swing area from December 2015 to January 2016. A higher swing area between 121.68 and 122.019 gave traders cause for pause, but was broken earlier this week and the price raced up toward the swing highs going back to 2015 at 125.27 and 125.85.
The high price this week reached 125.09 – within 18 pips of the first extreme high level from 2015. Given the extended range for the month, the market was ready to lean against the higher extremes.
What next?
Looking at the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the move up in March comes in at 121.10. If the price can hold that level, the correction is just a plain-vanilla variety. A resumption of the move to the upside can be expected.
Conversely,iIf that level can be broken, then the sellers can add to their corrective move lower with 120.00 and the 50% of the move up at 119.868 as the next downside targets.