Markets:
- Gold down $22 to $1919
- US 10-year yields down 5 bps to 2.14%
- WTI crude oil up $1.74 to $104.72
- S&P 500 up 50 points, or 1.2%, to 4452.
- AUD leads, JPY lags
The tone in Europe was negative and US equity futures were slated for declines but the mood in New York picked up, despite the hawkish comments from Waller that were followed by more from Barkin (and even Kashkari). You have to wonder if the market is actually encouraged that the Fed is stepping up and the takeaway is that inflation won’t be a problem down the line because of that, and terminal rates will ultimately be lower.
I think that’s a pretty big leap but it also fits with the recent pattern of dollar weakness. For its part, the dollar fared a bit better today after slumping since the Fed decision. But even with that, the slide to 1.1004 in EUR/USD was halted by bids at the figure and there was a 50 pip bounce from there.
The pound finished higher against the dollar and has nearly wiped out the post-BOE losses despite a seemingly more-negative tone in Ukraine.
Commodity currencies remained bid and finished at the best levels of the week. Oil chopped around and other commodities were more-steady (though the drama continued in nickel, which was limit-down). AUD/USD added another 40 pips to 0.7411.
AUD/JPY continues on its monster one-way run as the yen struggles broadly. The market is sensing a pickup in inflation (and rates) everywhere but Japan. I’m tempted to believe t
hat higher prices globally will also include Japan but everyone who has bet on higher Japanese inflation for the past 30 years has been carried out penniless so no one wants to make that bet and I don’t think they will any time soon either.
USD/JPY is probably my chart of the week. The pair is poised to close above 119.00, which will break the spike high in late 2016 and be a six-year closing high. That leaves some blue skies above for the yen trade, which has already run for awhile. It also continues to point to higher yields and stocks.
It’s amazing how quickly market sentiment can change from the dire mood on Monday to four +1% rallies in a row in the S&P 500.