The EURCHF has continued its run to the downside as investor exit the EUR and buy the relative safety of the CHF. The pair has reached a low 1.0019 and in the process is getting closer and closer to parity. The EURCHF has not traded below parity since January 2015.
The move has gotten the attention of the Swiss economy minister who says the move of the CHF close to parity is a concern. The SNB may look to curb the decline through intervention.
Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, the move lower over the last two trading days has seen the pair track mostly below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line). There have been modest moves above that MA line, but the price over the last two days has stayed safely away from that MA level (green line) – keeping the seller in control and the trend intact.
Today, the pair accelerated the move to the downside. The last trend leg lower moved from 1.0125 to 1.00196. The 38.2%-50% retracement of that trend leg is between 1.0060 and 1.00726 (see yellow area in the chart below). The falling 100 bar MA is at 1.0084 currently.
It would now take a move above the retracement levels to give the buyers some form of “victory” in its battle with the sellers. Absent that, and the buyers are NOT winning. The trend remains.
Ultimately a move above the 100 bar MA would be needed to give more comfort.