The pair trades to the lowest level since June 25
The USDCAD continues to remain below its 100 hour moving average. The price rises this week all found sellers ahead of that moving average level. The high price today reached 1.23449. The current 100 hour moving averages at 1.23533. Yesterday the test was closer, but sellers once again leaned.
The last time the price traded above its moving average was back on October 6.
The low today made a new low going back to June 25. The pair made a new low on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, but the breaks have seen bounce back rallys on each break. The low yesterday reached 1.2306. The low today reached 1.2287 before bouncing back to the highs at 1.23449. The current price trades at 1.23149.
Needless to say, it would take a move back above the 100 hour moving average (and staying above) to increase the bullish bias. That would be a step one. Subsequent steps would include getting above the 200 hour moving average at 1.23922.
Drilling to the daily chart below, the pair entered into a swing area between 1.2251 and 1.2302 today at the lows. That area is above the extreme lows from May and early June near the 1.2000 area. A move below it would put the price in the lower extreme area for the year.
Since the September 20 high, the price has moved down over 600 pips over a 23 day period. The sellers have certainly been in control and will remain in full control as long as the price can stay below its 100 hour moving average. Even so, there are a number of upside target that would need to be broken to tilt the bias more in the buyers direction.