In USD terms China’s Trade balance for July was $56.58 bln
- vs. expected $51.54bn, prior was $51.5bn
Exports +19.3% y/y for a small miss on the median consensus estimate
- expected +20.8% y/y, prior +32.2%
Imports +28.1% y/y, also a miss
- expected +33.0% y/y, prior was +36.7%
China’s trade surplus with the United States ( Reuters calculation)
- $35.4 bn in July ($32.58 bn in June)
As background to July’s data China’s economy has staged an impressive rebound since about mid-2020. July saw cases of the Delta variant of COVID-19 increasing, a trend that has continued into this month – many cities in the more industrial south and east have been impacted. Lockdowns and travel restrictions are a negative for business growth, and July was also impacted by floods and other bad weather.
Add in:
- the ongoing semiconductor shortage
- raw material (inputs to the production process) supply tightness, and higher raw material costs
- logistics bottlenecks and high freight costs
We’ve had the round of most recent PMIs from China released earlier this month, those for manufacturing a pointing to a perhaps slower path ahead while those for services are better.
- expected 50.8
- previous 50.9
Non-manufacturing 53.3 in July
- expected 53.3
- previous 53.5
Private survey PMIs: