• USD/INR extends pullback from weekly top, refreshes intraday low of late.
• India covid recovery rate risen 97.19% amid record infections, death tolls elsewhere in Asia-Pacific.
• Fitch cuts India growth forecast, India–UK negotiations on free trade agreement will begin during late 2021.
• Risk-off mood backs US dollar amid a light calendar, virus updates are the key.

USD/INR takes offers around 74.63, down 0.15% intraday, amid the initial Indian session trading on Friday. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair drops for the second consecutive day after refreshing the weekly high amid the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led risk-off mood.

While the market sentiment remains sluggish amid fears of the covid resurgence and variants, India registers a jump in the recovery rate to 97.19% on Friday, per the latest report from Health Ministry. Reuters conveys additional details as, “India reports 44,459 daily rise in recoveries; total recoveries at 29.89 million, active cases at 458,727.”

Read: Coronavirus Update: South Korea marks record infections, NSW hints another week-long lockdown

Also favoring the USD/INR prices could be the headlines suggesting optimism over the India-UK free trade agreement talks. The latest update from NewsRise shared by Reuters hints at the late 2021 discussion over the much-awaited trade talks.

On the negative side, global rating giant Fitch cut, per Financial Express, India’s growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 percent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post-second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence.

Amid these plays, the US dollar index (DXY) picks up bids while tracking the US Treasury yields rebound.

Looking forward, USD/INR traders need to pay close attention to the covid headlines as the nation’s surprise positive on the covid, when the majority of the neighbours suffer, could derail soon, posing downside risk to the pair.

Technical analysis

While mid-April lows highlight 74.55 as the key immediate support, an ascending support line from May 31 also challenges the USD/INR sellers around 74.48. Meanwhile, up-moves can keep eyeing the 75.00 threshold.