Economists at Crédit Agricole CIB Research believe that the EUR/USD pair may have already peaked just shy of the 1.05 level last week.

A recession will be hard to avoid

“The EUR failed to benefit much from the broad risk-on tone that saw equity gains coupled with a sharp correction in energy prices on Friday. On the data front, this week’s flurry of Eurozone leading indicators for November could increasingly provide evidence that a recession will be hard to avoid, which could in turn limit the EUR’s appeal, especially as it will imply a difficult reality check by the ECB.” 

“The EUR/USD rebound may have already peaked when it spiked just shy of 1.05 last week, as real rate spreads hint at some consolidation lower going into year-end.”