It’s Friday in Japan and that means that the consumer price index report is coming up.
The consensus is for a 1.5% y/y rise in the headline and 2.1% y/y in the core. The headline number ticked up to 1.2% from 0.9% y/y in March and there’s the chance for an upside surprise.
Earlier this month, Tokyo CPI did just that. The ex-food and energy reading rose to +0.8 m/m from -0.5%. Excluding sales tax hikes, that was the highest reading since 1992.
In a stark survey released yesterday, Reuters found that more than 60% of Japanese companies want the BOJ to end extraordinary measures, in part because of the falling yen.
“Any weakening of the yen beyond 125 to the dollar is excessive and
policymakers should take action in some way, including – but not limited
to – hiking rates,” one manager at a chemicals maker wrote in the
monthly Reuters Corporate Survey.
Given the global inflationary dynamic, it strikes me as nearly impossible that Japan could avoid it, particularly with a falling currency. Keep a very close eye on today’s numbers, which are due out at 7:30 pm ET, 2330 GMT and 8:30 am in Tokyo.